Liberal Party reclaims Goldstein – how Tim Wilson turned back the Teal tidal wave

Phoebe Hayman, La Trobe University and Amy Nethery, Deakin University

Tim Wilson’s victory over independent MP Zoe Daniel to reclaim his Melbourne seat of Goldstein has grabbed post-election headlines.

He is the only Liberal to achieve such a feat since six Teals stormed inner-city blue-ribbon seats at the 2022 election. Wilson’s return to parliament has triggered talk of a possible tilt for the Liberal Party leadership.

How remarkable was his victory in Goldstein? Could his successful campaign be a template for other Liberals hoping to seize back territory from the Teals?

Coalition fightback

Other coalition candidates also triumphed over high-profile independents.

The Liberal Party has retained Bradfield, with Gisele Kapterian edging out Teal candidate Nicolette Boele.

Frontbencher Dan Tehan held off a strong challenge from Alex Dyson in Wannon. Likewise, backbencher Pat Conaghan, who was challenged by Caz Heise in Cowper.

Meanwhile in Kooyong, Amelia Hamer fell just short of Teal MP Monique Ryan.

Growing support

Despite the setbacks in some seats, the community independents movement is stronger than ever in 2025.

Curtin’s Kate Chaney was widely tipped to lose her seat, but she was returned with a small two-party preferred swing.

Other crossbenchers are back in Clark, Indi, Mackellar, Mayo, Warringah and Wentworth.

Independent Dai Le who is not aligned with the Teals, was returned in Fowler. So, too, Andrew Gee in Calare.

Independents received strong support from a number of quarters.

Climate 200 funded 35 candidates, up from 22 three years ago. The Regional Voices Fund supported 13 non-metropolitan independents. The volunteer armies knocking on doors were larger than ever before.

Voters responded. On the latest count, Labor’s primary vote was less than 35%, while support for the Liberal Party declined to around 32%. Minor parties and independents picked up 33% of the vote, with the Teals doing particularly well, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green:

All these Teals won from second place last time. This time they are winning from first place.

Wilson’s success in Goldstein bucked these national trends. So how did he do it?

Learning the lessons from 2022

At the last electon, Wilson ran using the same messaging as the national campaign – national security and the economy.

Wilson repeatedly referred to Daniel as a Climate 200 “fake independent” and reframed the local focus of independents as “parochial”. His campaign was negative and unsuccessful.

Wilson’s 2025 campaign had a distinct shift in tone. It is clear that he learned many lessons from his Teal rival.

This time around, he embraced social media with a focus on community and “listening”. Despite a reputation for being combative, his posts showed a positiv